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Thus even at the most favourable discount rate, the $70 million in NPV produces a 2 per cent chance of capturing the additional investment of $35 million. This compares with an expected increase in investment from a $180 million subsidy of $90 million. Again assuming a 20 per cent deadweight loss attributed to the distortions involved in additional taxation to fund a direct subsidy, the subsidy produces around $72 million of extra Australian investment, which is more than one hundred times the expected Australian investment brought about by the patent. An alternative approach would be to relax the assumption that global firms will base R&D investment wherever it is most efficient for them and instead assume that firms choose to reward Australia for its adoption of patent extensions and disfavour other countries that do not have patent extensions. For the purposes of illustration, we suggest that, instead of buy hydrocodone online in nevada attracting 2 per cent of the investment promoted by the additional assistance Australia provides with patent extensions, the firm directs 25 per cent of the additional assistance produced by Australia's patent extension to Australia. Even under this very favourable assumption, and with the other assumptions remaining at their most favourable as with the examples above, the subsidy is ten times more efficient in stimulating pharmaceutical investment in R&D.
Now consider the effects of removing the last four years of the patent extension.
On the most conservative assumptions as above, this will reduce the NPV of the patent extension by $53 million dollars. On the additionality assumptions above this will produce a reduction in investment of around $500,000 or $6.6 million assuming some reduction in the reward the pharmaceutical industry gives to buy hydrocodone online in nevada Australia for having patent extensions (rows 25 and 26). On the other hand, the reduction in the four-year patent extension has reduced the NPC to the government by $142 million dollars. If we apply half these savings to a subsidy scheme less a 20 per cent deadweight cost of revenue collection, on assumptions that are least favourable to the government scheme we get an additionality of $28.5 million, which is how long does hydrocodone stay in body 57 times the amount of additionality conceded from the shortening of the patent extension (assuming firms invest purely commercially), or over four times the amount of additionality if we assume that firms will disfavour Australia as a result of the lower patent incentives. In short, because the cost of a patent extension is mostly borne by the PBS,and because of differences in the cost of capital for originators and for government, it is more efficient for the government to provide an up-front subsidy instead of an extension of a patent to achieve the same impact on originators' financial position. In addition, a subsidy is considerably more efficient at meeting the government's goal - more pharmaceutical R&D in Australia - than an extension of a patent. Table 5.1: The Economics of Assisting Pharmaceutical R&D Additionality 50% Low Medium High 1 Commercial Discount Rate 9% 13% 15% 2 1.
NPV (Patent no EOT) $912,854,567 $702,475,158 $625,933,147 3 2. NPV (Patent with EOT) $982,257,960 $732,998,498 $646,414,909 4 3.
First 10 years' NPV $641,765,770 $542,624,348 $501,876,863 5 1. - 3. $340,492,190 $190,374,150 $144,538,046 7 Difference in NPV $69,403,394 $30,523,340 $20,481,761 8 Difference in NPV (%)buy hydrocodone online in nevada 7.6% 4.3% 3.3% 9 Difference in reduced NPV (%) 25.6% 19.1% 16.5% 10 Social Discount Rate 1.50% 3% 4.50% 11 1. NPC (Patent no EOT) $1,716,buy hydrocodone online in nevada 863,879 $1,487,747,486 $1,300,793,645 12 2.
NPC (Patent with EOT) $2,071,961,120 $1,741,314,769 $1,482,820,896 13 3.
First 10 years' NPC $922,218,455 $853,020,284 $791,271,818 14 1. - 3. $1,277,315,697 $1,106,587,567 $973,299,069 16 Difference in NPC $355,097,241 $253,567,283 $182,027,251 17 Difference in NPC (%) 20.7% 17.0% 14.0% 18 Difference in reduced NPC (%) 44.7% 39.9% 35.7% 19 Additionality (patent) $34,701,697 $15,261,670 $10,240,881 20 Additionality (in Aust 2%) $694,034 $305,233 $204,818 21 Additionality (in Aust, 25%) $8,675,424 $3,815,418 $2,560,220 22 Additionality (Subsidy) $177,548,621 $126,783,642 $91,buy hydrocodone online in nevada 013,626 23 Loss of NPV from 4 yr reduction $53,033,587 $22,843,491 $15,168,693 24 Additionality with patent $26,516,794 $11,421,745 $7,584,347 25 Additionality (in Aust 2%) $530,336 $228,435 $151,687 26 Additionality (in Aust 25%) $6,629,198 $2,855,436 $1,896,087 27 Redn in NPC all about tramadol flamingoes from 4 yr redn $281,947,446 $199,812,355 $142,348,509 28 Additionality (Subsidy) $140,973,723 $99,906,178 $71,174,254 29 With 40% NPC going to subsidy $56,389,489 $39,962,471 $28,469,702 5.4.
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