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We examine commercial real discount rates of 9, 13 and 15 per cent reflecting a risk tolerant investor in the former case and a risk averse investor in the latter case, discounting heavily because of the riskiness of the project. The table reports how these discount rates affect the NPVs of extensions of the patent term. Looking at paracetamol and tramadol just those drugs in the Australian system that are protected by patents, we assume, for illustrative purposes, that each year they are on the market and receive patent protection, the value of the patent is one hundred million dollars of additional revenue. Given this, the NPV of the last $500 million dollars in the patent extension period (from years 21 to 25) would be worth between $70 and $20 million (See Row 7). In fact, however, the extension is only granted in its full form if the drug has taken ten years or more to come to market. In this situation, the last five years of the patent increase the patent life by fifty per cent. Yet because of the passage of time, the extension increases the NPV of the project ex ante by just over half this amount in the most optimistic scenario - with the lowest discount rate - ranging down to 16.5 per cent for a higher discount rate. The patent extension is a liability on government, which will be collected in twenty years. Accordingly, to assess the cost to government of the patent extension at the time its incentive effects are being assessed by investors, we need to apply the government'paracetamol and tramadol s discount rate to its future costs. The government's discount rate is much lower, and can be approximated by its cost of capital. Using a range of real discount rates of 1.5 to 4.5 per cent the net present cost (NPC) of the patent extension to the government at the commencement of the patent online order order phentermine term, discounted by its discount rate is between $355 and paracetamol and tramadol $182 million (See Row 16). Taking the lowest reasonable discount rate for the pharmaceutical firm and the highest discount rate for the government - ie the comparison that puts the patent extension in its best paracetamol and tramadol possible light - a government subsidy of $182 million at the outset of the patent term in subsidies to R&D would have the same NPC to the government as a patent extension, but could be expected to provide more than double the incentive to the pharmaceutical firm to invest. Even assuming that the subsidy suffered from a 'deadweight cost' of 20% representing the cost of tax collections, the government subsidy still has twice the policy efficacy of the patent extension in increasing incentives to invest in pharmaceuticals. Now let us consider how much additional investment in pharmaceutical R&D such incentives might generate in Australia. To illustrate, we assume an 'additionality' of 50 per cent - that is, for each dollar of additional NPV the firm sees it invests an additional 50 cents in R&D, though the number chosen here does not change the basic result or relationships being illustrated. In the case of the patent extension, Australia's assistance is provided no matter where the R&D investment occurs. If Australia's pharmaceutical industry is around 2 per cent of the global industry, and paracetamol and tramadol we assume that firms are responding only to the economic incentives they face, the additional investment in R&D on the relevant project is about fifty times more likely to take place outside Australia than in Australia.



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